KINERJA EKSPOR KAYU MANIS INDONESIA PASCA COVID-19
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35138/wanamukti.v28i1.1318Abstract
Indonesia is one of the world’s leading exporters of cinnamon products supported by abundant tropical forest resources. However, Indonesia’s cinnamon exports fluctuated during the period 2018–2024 due to changes in global trade conditions, particularly the trade war between the United States and China and the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to analyze the export performance of Indonesia’s cinnamon products in the world market during and after the COVID-19 pandemic using the Constant Market Share (CMS) approach. Data on export values, exchange rates, and GDP deflators obtained from Trade Map and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were analyzed using CMS analysis. The results showed that during the COVID-19 pandemic Indonesia’s cinnamon exports decreased significantly, mainly due to negative world trade and export position effects. In contrast, commodity composition and market distribution effects contributed positively to export performance. In the post-pandemic period, Indonesia’s cinnamon exports increased, indicating recovery in export performance and adjustment to changing global trade conditions. Market distribution and commodity composition remained important factors affecting export performance during the study period. For the future, Indonesia needs strategies to strengthen export performance through market diversification, product quality improvement, development of processing technology, expansion of international market access, and sustainable production systems.
Keywords: export performance, cinnamon, constant market share, market distribution, world trade, COVID-19.
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