EKSPOR MINYAK ATSIRI INDONESIA SELAMA DAN SETELAH PANDEMI COVID-19
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35138/wanamukti.v28i2.1325Abstract
ABSTRACT
Indonesia is one of the world’s leading exporters of essential oil products supported by abundant tropical forest resources. However, Indonesia’s essential oil exports fluctuated during the period 2018–2024 due to changes in global trade conditions, including the trade war between the United States and China and the COVID-19 pandemic. Limited studies have examined changes in Indonesia’s essential oil exports during periods of structural disruption using the Constant Market Share (CMS) approach. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze Indonesia’s essential oil export during and after the COVID-19 pandemic using CMS analysis. Data on export values, exchange rates, and GDP deflators obtained from Trade Map and IMF were analyzed using the Constant Market Share method. The results showed that during the COVID-19 pandemic Indonesia’s essential oil exports significantly decreased mainly due to unfavorable world trade and export position effects. In contrast, commodity composition and market distribution had favorable impacts on Indonesia’s exports. After the COVID-19 pandemic, Indonesia’s essential oil exports increased substantially, supported by positive contributions from all CMS components. The results also indicate that HS 330129 and HS 330190 remained the dominant export products during the study period. For the future, Indonesia needs strategies to strengthen export stability through sustainable production, product standardization, downstream processing, market diversification, innovation in production processes, and expansion of international market access. In addition, future studies are recommended to combine CMS analysis with econometric approaches to better explain structural changes in export demand.
Keywords: commodity composition, export dynamics, market distribution, trade structure, world trade.
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